I believe that Indian politics is all set to enter into a new era/arena. Many permutations and combinations will be tried and very interseting combination will emerge.
The new government's model will be like the present UPA government. It will have a CEO type Prime Minister like
Dr Manmohan Singh . He/She will have some administrative experience and will look after daily affairs of the government. And the political affairs will be looked after by certain group of political leaders (of different political parties, of course). I mean the role played by
Sonia Gandhi in the incumbent
UPA Government.
Yes, I'm serious. UPA model will be followed in the formation of new government also and it'll have two essential component - A CEO type Prime Minister and Separate Political Leadership.
In my last post, I beriefly about the candidates and projected
Budhdhadeb Bhattacharya's name for Prime Minister. I still stand by it. But lot of friends ridiculed the idea and asked me the basis. Let me share it why?
Indian Politics is in the coalition politics era and not a single party is capable of getting absolute majority. Therefore, strong leaders have very weak chances of becoming Prime Minister. It is because they are capable of rooting out the politics of their opponents as well as their coalition partners. So consensus candidate would have to be essentialy a person who can not threaten the politics of any of the coalition partners. In other words, the most important quality of the next Prime Minister would be to be politically weak politician, having some administrative experience.
Let's analyse the candidature of our Political leaders :
Lal Krishna Advani : He is a declared PM candidate of NDA. But his chances are weak as he has always been

presented by the BJP as a strong leader, even been compaired to Sardar Patel. And he has a past ghost of Hindutva, Ram Rath Yatra and Babri Masjid. So many parties are wary of him. He has always been taken as a hardliner and his attempts of projecting himself a moderate, consensus candidate has always failed. Take the example of Jinnah controversy, where quoting a speech of Md Ali Jinnah, taking middle grounds he wanted to say something. But he was fiercely opposed by his own party and party patriarch - RSS. Since then, Mr Advani several times tired to present himself as an acceptable leader, almost on the lines of Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee. But he always failed. In one of my friend's words,
Vajpayee banne ki koshish me Advani Advani bhi nahi reh gaye . 
And it's true. At present, Advanijee looks like prime his past and he neither have the charisma nor the oratory skills of Vajpayee. Unlike Vajpayee, he failed to knit a coalition both the times - this time and even in 2004.
Advani's image as a hardliner, his failure to knit a coalition and his inability of not having the charisma and oratory skills are major factors against him.
Just take a look at the present day NDA - except INLD, AGP and RLD, none of the regional parties joined the NDA. And I would say that barring AGP, INLD and RLD are not capable of adding more than 6-7 seats in the NDA kitty.
Rahul Gandhi : Congress' crown prince Rahul Gandhi is not in the fray as his strategists understand that withouthaving 160+ seats, Rahul can not become Prime Minister or become a strong Prime Minister. Therefore projecting him would have had catatrophic effect on the future of the Congress.
Although, personally I want to see him as Prime Minister. Simply because he is fresh, young and our country needs fresh faces in our polity. However, he has a long way to go before he takes control of our nation.
Sonia Gandhi : She knows that she can not become Prime Minister as her Italian origin will always be used against

her. The
tag of
Videshi will always be used against her. Suppose she becomes Prime Minister and some big crisis takes place .. it'll be said by her opponents -
Dekha, Ham Keh Rahe the na, videshi Pradhaan Mantri hogi to aisa hi hoga.. etc etc . She knows it too well and therefore, waiting very patiently and working tirelessly to pave way for Rahul.
But I admire her because of the way she has carried herself since the demise of Rajeev Gandhi. Particularly in last five years. However admiration is one thing and taking over the top most chair of this country is other thing. It's useless to say that she has enjoyed much more power than the top job of the country.
After two main parties, let's move to other parties. Who wants to eb the next Prime Minister - Sharad Pawar, Mayawati, Mulayam, Lalu, Ramvilas, Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik, Chandrababu Naidu, Jayalalitha, Karunanidhi, Prakash Karat, Sitaram Yechuri, H D Devegowda and my chice Budhdhadeb Bhattacharya. Let's discuss their chances :
Sharad Pawar : He is a very serious contender as he knows that this is his last election.
Abhi nahi to Kabhi nahi type situation is lingering infront of him. But he is too suave a politician to be supported and has a very strong base in Maharashtra. So even if he manages to get support of other parties, Congress will not accept his name. Because he can wipe out Congress in his domain Maharashtra and inside the state politics, he has shown it several times. And if Congress agrees to his name, it will be a deadly blow to Congress (if it dreams to return to power in future). Therefore, I rule him out.
Mayawati : She is riding on a very strong Dalit wave and had managed the support of upper cast in Uttar Pradesh.

So she is a very Strong Leader in her domain and her party is very fast emerging as the third real national party. Therefore, with her brand of politics, she is capable of rooting out several leaders including Mulayam, Lalu, Ramvilas, to some extent even Sharad Pawar, Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu and politics of CPM/CPI. She is capable of emerging as true national leaders just like Pandit Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Atal Behari Vajpayee. So her strongness goes against her and therfore, I rule her out.
Mulayam : He is also a stong north Indian leader but he can't stand eye-to-eye with Mayawati and his chances in Uttar Pradesh are weak this time. He is not likely to get more than 16-17 seats and because I feel that Mayawati will play a vital role in the formation of new government, so I rule out his candidature.
But he is an unpredictable character and mind you, he is yet to get a cabinet berth in the central cabinet since the fall of United Front government. At the same time, he is out of Uttar Pradesh as well. Therfore, he desperately needs some power and for that he may settle for some ministerial verths.
Lalu : He is not going to have the same clout which he enjoyed in the UPA government. He is on a very weak and slippery wicket in his turf and unlikely to get more than 10 seats. Plus he has always been a strong politician (even after not having enough seats) and unlikely to be acceptable by Mayawati and Congress. It'll be a deadly blow to revival chances of Congress in Bihar, if his candidature is accepted. Plus he has several corruption cases pending in court and his non-seriousness also goes against him.
Ramvilas Paswan : He is a Dalit leader and can not be at the same platform where Mayawati is. Plus despite being in the central cabinet for most of his political career, he lacks pan India presence. Therefore, he can not be taken as a serious contender.
And he has no locus standii. He'll be part of the government, whether it is UPA, NDA or the so called Third Front. That much I'm sure.
Chandrababu Naidu : He is likely to make a comeback in Andhra Pradesh but chair of Prime Minister is still very far from him. He is hardly known in Hindi heartland and despite the fact that he is likely to get good number of seats (16-17 seats), he needs some special efforts to make himself acceptable. He is all set to emerge a very strong leader this tme and had a CEO type image also. But this time, he may have to contend with Andhra only. Pollings suggest that He is going to make a come back but will not get the absolute majority. So his first priority would be to set his own house in order. Also the fact that except H D Devegowda, none of the South Indian leaders have got to the chair of Prime Minister, goes against him. He'll need extraordinary efforts and support of the people to rule the Raisina Hill.
Jayalalitha : She is also likely to emerge as a very strong leader down south and is likely to get enough number of seats to make her Kingmaker. But she is and has always been at the odds with Centre's politics. So she may have to contend with large number of ministerial berth in the Central cabinet and would continue to play the role of Kingmaker.
Srilankan army's deadly assault on LTTE and V Prabhakaran can fetch votes for her and this will be enough to defeat Karunanidhi in the state electoral politics.
Karunanidhi : Odds are against him and he needs great luck to retain his tally of 14th Lok Sabha. Plus he always had a hate relationship with Jayalalitha, just like Mulayam-Mayawati. So in a government where Jayalalitha is set to play large role, his chances are almost zero. And his age is also against him.
A view is fast emerging in Tamilnadu that the UPA Government at the Centre is not doing any service to the caus eo fSrilankan Tamil's cause. This is working against him as he is one of the major allies of the Congress at the Centre. The Srilankan army's assault is taking aways his voters and would cause a big dent in his vote bank/seats.
H D Devegowda : He became Prime Minister by sheer luck and coincidence. This is unlikely to happen this time again. Odds are against him and
unlikely to get more than 2-3 seats. Plus he has been cuaght napping in the Parliament and age is not on his side. So he can be a kingmaker, not the King himself.
At the most, he would settle for a ministerial berth for his son Kumaraswamy. But, at the same time, expect lots of hue-n-cry from him. That's for sure.
Nitish Kumar : He has very strong chances in Bihar this time and would get enough number of seats. But to become Prime Minister, he can not axe his roots. BJP's support is vital for him to run his government in Bihar. He seems to be prepairing for the 16th Lok Sabha and till then, he would prefer to wait for his number at the top.
Naveen Patnaik : He has emerged as a darkhorse by locking horns with the BJP. However, he has

assembly elections to win and his first priority seems to be that only. The polling in Orissa indicate that he is not as comfortable as he was projected. The polling trends indicate that he has tough times ahead and he may need BJP support again to form the next state cabinet. This simply means that his first challenge would be to put his own house in order and therefore, he'll be forced to make a comeback in the NDA camp.
Prakash Karat : He is one man who has never faced a single election but has dominated the political space. His

extreme ideological stand and a hardliner image are against him. None of the Indian leaders would have forgotten that even in 1996, he was the prime mover to unsettle Jyoti Basu. So consensus on his name is simply impossible.
At the same time, he is all set to lose his supremacy within the CPI(M). His party is going to lose Kerala and Bengal lobby is all set to over rule him. This simply means that the CPI(M) would join the government, despite the opposition of Prakash Karat. They are unlikely to repeat historical blunder once again.
Sitaram Yechuri : He has been projected as a liberal leader among the Left Parties but he is too young to be accepted as Prime Minister and his political background rules him out. But mind you, in all likelihood, he would join the Central cabinet. That's for sure.
So, if none of the above Third Front (minus Congress, minus BJP) are going to make it to Raisina Hill, on whom they will settle for. All the above mentioned leaders will play the role of Sonia Gandhi (of UPA Government) but can not accept each-other's name. Every party has something against others.
And Here comes the name of West Bengal Chief Minister Budhadeb Bhattacharya. Why ? Just read the following :
Budhadeb Bhattacharya : He has every thing in his favor, except his age. He has a liberal, pro-reforms image and

he is widely accepted in the political class, even accepted by the Congress. He has vast administrative experience. Add to his advantage that he is not considered in the league of Prakash Karat, despite being in CPM. He has often been dubbed as a right leader in wrong party. Remember, Vajpayee was also dubbed like that. And Budhdha Babu, despite being Chief Minsiter of West Bengal, has never been as popular in masses as Jyoti Babu was. He rose to the CM's post due to left hierarchy and not because of popularity. And he has committed several sins which could not have been dreamt by the CPM. He promotes privatisation, reforms and other economic policies which CPM is opposed to.
Therefore, He is acceptable to the Congress, Sharad Pawar, Chandrababu, Jayalalitha and for the sake of consensus even Mayawati can go for him. Vast administrative experience is another feather in his cap.
However, this move would wean Mamta Banerjee and her Trinmool Congress away from Congress. But just like the last time (the UPA Government's tenure), this experiment would/can continue for some years, say 2-3 years.
That means .. the next government is another rainbow coalition in offing. It would be supported by the Congress but the grand old party will not be its nucleus. In fact, it could look like 50:50 between the Congress and the so called third front. Congress would have the option to join the government and if it joins, it'll try to get large no of cabinet berths. Pawar, Mayawati, Prakash Karat, Jayalalitha, Chandrababu are some of those leaders who will together play the role of Sonia Gandhi. And Budhdha Babu may play the role of Dr Manmohan Singh.
However, I feel that this government would collapse in 2 or 2 1/2 years due to its own contradictions. Contradictions, I say, because Sonia Gandhi always had the last laugh in UPA Government but this will be not the case with the new goverment. Several leaders together will do Sonia's job and there is bound to be ego clashes, lack of consensus etc.
So keep watching this great Indian Political drama and enjoy from the sidelines, like me.
A Last Word : I've used many cartoons available on the internet and don't know the name of the artists. But I sincerely thank them for such a fabulous work. For blogs, my understanding is that, it can used. Although, I'm ready to apologize, if any copyright violation has taken place. Please immediately mail me on that and I'd delete that image. Thanks