The Next Indian Government .. Who'll be at the helm of affairs?

Perhaps more than billions of we Indians have been thinking about it ... who'll form the new government .. who'll have the last laugh ? Perhaps, other than the Indian Netas, the media (both Print and electronic) is most anxious to know it. Alas, if they would have any thing like Aladin's genie/jinn, which could have told them the actual results of the great Indian Parliamentary elections ..?

Nevertheless, everyone is trying to do some smart guessing and your's truely is definitely in this race.

I've made my projections and on that basis, it's very difficult for me to say who'll lead the government. But first I share my predictions/projections :

Party Wise Projection 2009

Parties	Likely to get seats
BJP	130-135
Congress	120-130
BSP	40-44
CPI(M)	28-31
AIADMK	20-22
TDP	16-18
JD(U)	16-18
Samajwadi Party	16-17
NCP	14-15
Shiv Sena	13-14
BJD	11-12
RJD	08-09
TRS	06-08
SAD	05-06
AGP	05-06
Praja Rajyam	06-09
CPI	05
DMK	04-05
PMK	04-05
MDMK	03-04
LJP	03-04
JMM	03-04
INLD	03-04
Trinmool Congress	05-07
JD(S)	02-03
AIFB	03
RSP	03
National Conference	03
RLD	03-04
PDP	01

Basis of my projections are state wise and I feel/my calculations say that state specific issues are the key factor and issues like terrorism is not going to make much impact. So as you can see, the mandate is very much fractured and I believe that neither BJP nor Congress is going to get more than 135 seats. And therefore, it has made me damn confused.

But on this basis only, I want to say that BJP's PM-in-waiting Mr Lal Krishna Advani's dream will remain a pipe dream and the most prestigious chair of our country would continue to elude him. If I take the words of rustic Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav's words that Advanijee does not have the Rajyoga line in his hand.

And I also feel that perhaps Congress has sensed this fractured mandate and therefore, it has avoided to project its crown prince Mr Rahul Gandhi as PM-in-waiting. In fact, I wish to link the decision of Congress going solo in the states like UP and Bihar to this very fact only.

It looks to me that perhaps either Congress or its crown prince has sensed it and therefore, they have started prepairing for the next general elections (not of 2009 but for 2011 or afterwards). And due to the fractured mandate, perhaps the Congress strategists feel that the next government will not last for more than 2 years and then the time will be ripe for their crown prince Mr Gandhi to take over.

In this scenario, I also feel that just like Deve Gowda experiment of 1996, some unheard name can surprise us and would emerge as consensus PM candidate. And the field will be left open for people like Mr Sharad Pawar, Ms Mayawati, Mr Navin Patnaik, Mr Nitish Kumar or some other leader. I'll not predict the name as only actual results will decide the actual name. I can't predict the permutation-combination happening after 16th May.

However, I feel that in this scenario, BJP will not become a part of the goernment and it may give outside support to the next government.

Another possibility and the strongest possibility is of Government being formed with the support of Congress & Left Front both. Not only that, both - the Congress & the Left Front will vie for the cabinet berths. Yes, the so called Third Front (or minus BJP, minus Congress) would bargain with Congress by saying that we've seen your Prime Minister and now it's time for our candidate .. The Congress would also be told that either support the government from outside or be a part of the government.. and in most likely scenario, the Congress will join the government and would bargain for some key cabinet portfolios, citing the largest party status of the alliance.

At the same time, the Left Front will not make another historical blunder and they would join the government. And it will also have CPI(M) for the first time in the Union Cabinet. Mind you, this would be done despite the fierce opposition of CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat. As my predictions say, the Left Front would likely be wiped out in Kerala and it's maximum seats will come from West Bengal. Therefore, the Bengal lobby of the CPI(M) would prevail over others including Karat.

I even have a feeling that present West Bengal Chief Minister Mr Buddhadeb Bhattacharya can emerge as consensus Prime Ministerial candidate. He has a good rapport with senior Congress leaders including Pranab Mukherjee and perhaps Congress may agree to his name. His role in the formation of the new government would be pivotal.

However, I also feel that hopes of Ms Mayawati would not fructify and she would continue to play the so near, yet so far game. Despite having 40-44 seats, She would lose the throne. Simply because her brand of politics, once given the chance to rule, would push several leaders into the corner and grab their vote bank.

Not only that several eleders like Sharad Pawar are contesting for the last time perhaps (age is not in their side). Therefore, it would be the last chance for them to make it to the hot seat. And they can go to any extent to achieve this goal.

At the same time, leaders like Lalu-Paswan would get their pound of flesh and can continue as Central Ministers but may not have that clout as they used to have in the erstwhile UPA government.

Question like what would happen to Mulayam Singh Yadav is a tricky one and I don't have the answers. Due to Mayawati's dominance, Mulayam would hardly have any role but mind you, he is out of central political space/does not have any central cabinet berth since the fall of then United Front Government and this time he is out of UP as well. So he is desperately seeking some space in Centre and therefore, his actions are difficult for predict.

Leaders like Nitish would perhaps prefer to wait than to take hurried decision. I've laways had the impression that he is prepairing for the long battle ahead and with out making noises, would continue to fight for the top post as he did in Bihar to dethrone Lalu. Perhaps he is prepairing for the general elections in 2011 or after wards.

Perhaps Navin Patnaik too could follow Nitish's footsteps and would prefer to wait than to reveal his cards in such a fractured mandate. But he'd have some cabinet berths under his belt.

But as I said earlier, all of these permutation-combination is difficult to predict before a single vote being casted. And it'll take its own fierce shape after the 16th May, when the results will be out.

However, a final thing from my side .. I'm not a psephologist and my predictions can be hundred per cent incorrect and I'd be more than happy to see perhaps a government with Congress/BJP being its nucleus. This would provide stability in these turbulent times of recession and perhaps this is the need of the hour also.

But No one should take the Great Indian Public lightly .. they have defeated people like mighty Indira Gandhi and they have the charisma to make it happen once again. So the surprise package is in the offing. Just wait till May 16, 2009